Detailed Technical Analysis

The administration’s strategy has relied heavily on exhausting existing policy reserves rather than implementing new structural changes. According to a White House official speaking on condition of anonymity, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hosted a meeting on Tuesday with energy executives, alongside Chief of Staff Susie Wiles and Vice President JD Vance. The group deliberated on steps taken to alleviate global oil markets and potential next moves if the blockade continues.

To date, the administration has utilized three primary mechanisms:

1. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR): In March, the administration released 172 million barrels from the reserve.
2. Jones Act Waiver: The administration temporarily waived the Jones Act, a century-old law requiring goods between U.S. ports to be moved on U.S.-flagged vessels, to protect domestic shipping.
3. Regulatory Adjustments: Environmental rules prohibiting higher ethanol gas blends in summer were lifted due to smog concerns, and the Treasury Department paused some sanctions on Russian oil sales.

However, further options are limited. Lawmakers have proposed eliminating the federal gas tax (18.3 cents per gallon for gasoline, 24.3 cents for diesel), but analysts note this would offer minimal relief against rapidly increasing global prices. Furthermore, it is unclear if stations would pass savings to consumers. The tax also funds the Highway Trust Fund, which already faces deficits due to increased fuel efficiency; eliminating it could jeopardize highway maintenance.

The White House has also pushed back on proposals to ban exports of U.S.-produced oil, a move that would face backlash from oil companies that have expanded their exporting business over the past decade. White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers stated that President Trump has been “straightforward” about the “temporary, short-term disruptions,” promising prices will plummet once traffic in the Strait of Hormuz normalizes.

Market Impact & Sentiment

The economic fallout of the energy crisis is already manifesting in consumer behavior and corporate stability. A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll reveals that 44 percent of Americans are cutting back on driving, while 42 percent are reducing household expenses. Additionally, 34 percent have altered their travel and vacation plans. This behavioral shift represents a significant contraction in demand that could ripple through the broader economy.

Corporate resilience is being tested by these price hikes. Spirit Airlines announced it would shut down operations effective immediately on Saturday morning after a White House proposal to bail out the budget carrier fell through. The airline cited the recent increase in oil prices as significantly impacting its prospects, noting that with no additional funding available, it had “no choice but to begin this wind-down.” This development has drawn widespread criticism from the public, who attribute the bankruptcy to foreign policy decisions and rising fuel costs linked to the Iran conflict.

Public sentiment regarding the war itself has deteriorated sharply. A Post-ABC-Ipsos poll indicates that President Trump’s war in Iran is as unpopular among Americans as the Iraq War during its peak violence in 2006 and the Vietnam War in the early 1970s. Many Americans fear the conflict will lead to a recession, while others express concerns regarding terrorism resulting from the military campaign.

The administration faces immediate legal pressure. On Friday, May 1, President Trump claimed hostilities with Iran had “terminated” in a letter to Congress, citing a ceasefire since April 7, 2026. However, this claim contradicts the reality that tens of thousands of U.S. service members remain in harm’s way and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The War Powers Resolution of 1973 requires presidents to remove forces from unauthorized conflicts within 60 days. While Trump argued the requirement is unconstitutional, Democrats pushed back immediately. Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer dismissed the claim as “bullshit,” while Sen. Jeanne Shaheen noted that the administration entered the war without a strategy or legal authorization.

Despite the rejection of a resolution to withdraw forces (50-47 vote), the political pressure remains high. Senators like Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski have expressed concern over the lack of congressional authorization, with Murkowski planning to introduce legislation if the deadline passes without a credible plan.

The Road Ahead

The definitive way to blunt rising prices, according to most analysts, is to reach an agreement with Iran that ensures the Strait of Hormuz remains open to shipping traffic long term. However, on Friday, Trump told reporters he was “not satisfied” with Iran’s latest proposal to end the conflict. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, warned that instead of realizing a potential mistake, both the White House and Iran seem to be dug in, entering what could become a much larger energy crisis in the weeks ahead.

The political stakes are elevated by the upcoming midterms. Rising gas prices have been a source of anxiety for Republicans in a midterm election year. The Biden administration previously struggled with similar maneuvers when fuel prices surged following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, finding that many of the same tactics deployed by the Trump administration were ineffective